2026 Consumer M&A Outlook

Industry report

Consumer markets remain increasingly polarized between differentiated brands with clear relevance and undistinguished products competing primarily on price.

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Founders Group

Ali Naseer
Co-Founder & Partner
Ali@FoundersG.com (952) 797-4679
Matt Menzi
Co-Founder & Partner
Matt@FoundersG.com (301) 767-5616

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Consumer M&A is polarized between differentiated brands and replaceable products

Strategics are paying for brands with clear consumer pull and category growth, while undifferentiated products face pressure from private label, retailer power and volatile input costs.

Large transactions are improving price discovery
Scaled combinations and strategic brand acquisitions are restoring price discovery at the upper end.
Health and wellness categories remain active
Functional beverage, skincare, nutrition and pet health continue attracting strategic capital.
Brand performance data is increasingly important
Repeat purchase, velocity and distribution productivity carry more weight than follower counts or a polished story.
Retailer economics materially affect earnings quality
Slotting, promotions, chargebacks and concentration can materially change the quality of reported growth.
Direct-to-consumer performance requires unit-economic validation
Efficient acquisition and repeat behavior can add value; paid-media dependence usually does not.
Gross-margin durability differentiates assets
Pricing power, supply resilience and gross-margin recovery determine whether growth converts to EBITDA.

SECTOR AT A GLANCE

Six principal investment categories define the branded-products market

The buyer set and valuation logic differ by replenishment cycle, channel, gross margin and strength of consumer loyalty.

Exhibit 1

Investable lane	Business model	Primary buyer lens	Key risk
Food & beverage	Branded replenishment and consumption	Velocity, repeat purchase and distribution	Commodities / retailers
Beauty & personal care	High-margin repeat-use products	Brand relevance, efficacy and channel	Trend risk
Consumer health & wellness	Supplements, functional and self-care	Claims, efficacy and repeat behavior	Regulatory claims
Pet products	Food, treats, health and accessories	Humanization, retention and specialty channel	Input costs
Home & household products	Durable and replenishable home goods	Category position, innovation and channel	Housing / promotion
Outdoor, recreation & accessories	Enthusiast-led durable products	Community, innovation and specialty channel	Discretionary demand

MARKET UPDATE

Strategic buyer activity is improving despite an incomplete broader market recovery

Deal volume remains below prior peaks, but scaled buyers are moving decisively toward differentiated, category-relevant brands.

-22.9%: Decline in private-equity consumer dealmaking in the latest full year
30.6%: Share of disclosed deals valued above $250 million
5-year low: Latest full-year consumer transaction volume

Exhibit 2

Theme	Market interpretation	Owner evidence that matters
Consumer polarization	Value and premium brands are outperforming undifferentiated middle positioning.	Show price architecture and cohort retention by channel.
Health and function	Consumers continue seeking products tied to wellness, efficacy and convenience.	Substantiate claims, repeat behavior and category growth.
Portfolio reshaping	Large companies are focusing on categories where they can lead.	Position the brand as a clear strategic adjacency.
Channel normalization	Retail inventory is healthier, but buyers remain cautious on promotion-led growth.	Reconcile sell-in, sell-through, returns and retailer inventory.
Input and tariff risk	Commodity, packaging and sourcing volatility affect margin visibility.	Document price-cost history and supply alternatives.

PRIVATE DEAL ACTIVITY

Transaction value is concentrated in brands with clear strategic relevance

Functional beverage, focused food, skincare, pet and iconic intellectual property are attracting buyers even in a selective market.

Strategic: Primary driver of the largest consumer transactions
Functional: One of the clearest acquisition themes across categories
Selective: Private capital is favoring profitable or highly distinctive brands

Exhibit 3

Activity category	Buyer activity	Implications for owners
Functional beverage	Large strategics are buying scaled brands with strong cultural relevance and rapid velocity.	Growth needs repeat purchase and channel economics, not only awareness.
Food portfolio focus	Major groups are combining or divesting categories to improve strategic clarity.	A focused category position can matter more than broad assortment.
Beauty and skincare	Global buyers continue acquiring science-backed brands with cross-border potential.	Claims, gross margin and channel productivity drive value.
Pet	Strategics are buying premium nutrition and subscription relationships.	Retention and unit economics must support the humanization thesis.
Consumer platforms	Sponsors are backing brands with clear expansion across products, channels or geographies.	Management and supply-chain readiness determine scalability.

BUYER LANDSCAPE

Buyer valuation reflects both brand strength and distribution synergies

Strategics can underwrite channel and procurement synergies; sponsors need a standalone growth and margin case.

Exhibit 4

Buyer type	Typical objective	What can create differentiated value	Common constraint
Global consumer strategics	Add growth categories and consumer relevance	Distribution, procurement and international expansion	Portfolio fit and brand integration
Focused category leaders	Consolidate a specific shelf or consumer need	Salesforce overlap and category expertise	Concentration and antitrust
Consumer-focused sponsors	Scale a distinctive brand or portfolio	Capital, operating talent and add-ons	Exit path and growth durability
Sponsor-backed platforms	Add brands, formats or channels	Shared sales, supply chain and digital capability	Brand conflict and integration
Family / private strategics	Extend a long-term branded-products franchise	Patience, culture and category commitment	Narrower capital and channel reach

VALUATION FRAMEWORK

Purchase velocity, repeat behavior and gross margin support valuation premiums

Revenue growth without channel productivity or repeat purchase is fragile; slower brands with durable consumer economics can still command strong interest.

5-10x: Common tuck-in band across profitable consumer categories
8-16x: Common platform band for differentiated brands
Premium: Possible where growth, margin and strategic fit converge

Exhibit 5

Valuation lens	Why it matters	What strengthens the case
Consumer pull	Repeat purchase and velocity prove relevance.	Use retailer, cohort and household-level evidence.
Channel quality	Balanced, productive distribution reduces concentration risk.	Track sell-through, inventory, returns and contribution.
Gross-margin durability	Pricing power funds marketing and growth.	Bridge price, mix, commodity, freight and promotion.
Efficient growth	Buyers discount revenue purchased through uneconomic promotion or media.	Show acquisition cost, payback and mature-channel economics.
Operational scalability	Supply, quality and forecasting must support wider distribution.	Document capacity, vendors and service levels.

VALUATION FRAMEWORK | FOUNDERS GROUP INDICATIVE RANGES

Brand relevance and category economics produce wide valuation dispersion

Ranges are Founders Group guideposts for profitable lower-middle-market consumer businesses—not quoted prices or a substitute for company-specific analysis.

Exhibit 6

Exhibit 7

Lens	What changes the outcome
Premium drivers	High organic growth; repeat purchase; strong velocity; gross-margin durability; category tailwinds; balanced channels; low concentration; efficient marketing; scalable supply chain.
Discount drivers	Retailer concentration; weak sell-through; promotional growth; trend dependence; low margins; commodity exposure; paid-media dependence; returns; quality or claims risk.
Structure matters	Earnouts, rollover, working capital, inventory treatment, retailer deductions, debt-like obligations and tax structure can change proceeds at the same headline multiple.

SELECTED ANNOUNCED TRANSACTIONS | SCALED PLATFORMS

Scaled transactions favor category leaders with clear strategic positioning

Selected transactions illustrate buyer priorities; they are not an exhaustive market sample.

Exhibit 8

Target / transaction	Buyer / ownership	Lane	Reported value	Strategic rationale
Unilever Foods + McCormick	Business combination	Food / flavor	$45.0bn reported	Creates a focused global flavor company
Kellanova	Mars	Snacking	$35.9bn	Adds scaled global snack brands
WK Kellogg	Ferrero	Breakfast foods	$3.1bn	Expands a global branded-food portfolio
Utz Brands	Intersnack	Snacking	$2.9bn reported	Adds a leading U.S. snack platform
poppi	PepsiCo	Functional beverage	$1.95bn	Adds a fast-growing prebiotic soda brand
Alani Nu	Celsius	Functional beverage	$1.8bn	Adds a complementary energy and wellness brand
Medik8 majority stake	L'Oreal	Skincare	Approx. EUR 1.0bn reported	Adds science-backed premium skincare

SELECTED ANNOUNCED TRANSACTIONS | ADD-ONS AND CAPABILITIES

Add-on acquisitions are expanding category relevance, consumer loyalty and distribution access

The strongest private transactions pair a differentiated brand with a buyer that can expand it efficiently.

Exhibit 9

Target	Acquirer	Lane	Strategic rationale	Reported value
Touchland	Church & Dwight	Personal care	Adds a fast-growing premium hand-care brand	$700m
Ollie	Agrolimen	Pet food	Adds a subscription fresh-pet-food platform	>$600m reported
So Good So You	Bansk Group	Wellness beverage	Adds functional shots and health positioning	Not disclosed
Care Bears	Authentic Brands Group	Consumer IP	Adds an iconic licensing platform	Not disclosed
BARCODE	Axum Capital Partners	Functional beverage	Backs expansion of a differentiated hydration brand	Not disclosed
Trust	ACCO Brands	Consumer technology	Adds branded productivity accessories	Not disclosed
Medik8 minority retained	L'Oreal / existing owner	Beauty	Combines strategic distribution with continued participation	Not disclosed

SUBSECTOR 1 OF 6

Food and beverage

Repeat purchase, retailer velocity and category relevance support strategic value, while commodity and promotion risk create dispersion.

6.0-9.0x EBITDA: Indicative tuck-in valuation
9.0-14.0x EBITDA: Indicative platform valuation
Replenishment + distribution: Core economic model

Exhibit 10

Lens	Assessment
Buyer universe	Mars; PepsiCo; Coca-Cola; Mondelez; Ferrero; General Mills; J.M. Smucker; McCormick; strategic and sponsor-backed food groups.
What buyers underwrite	Velocity; repeat purchase; distribution; gross margin; promotion; retailer concentration; co-manufacturing; commodities; innovation; household penetration.
Current market developments	Large transactions are focusing portfolios around snacking, flavor, functional beverages and other categories with clear growth and consumer relevance.
Principal risks	Commodity inflation; retailer inventory; slotting; deductions; food safety; co-manufacturer concentration; promotional dependence; claims.

Selected market signal

Recent billion-dollar beverage acquisitions demonstrate strategic demand for fast-growing functional brands with cultural relevance and broader distribution potential.

SUBSECTOR 2 OF 6

Beauty and personal care

High gross margins, repeat use and global channel expansion can support premium valuations for brands with credible efficacy and relevance.

7.0-11.0x EBITDA: Indicative tuck-in valuation
11.0-16.0x EBITDA: Indicative platform valuation
Brand + repeat use: Core economic model

Exhibit 11

Lens	Assessment
Buyer universe	L'Oreal; Estee Lauder; Procter & Gamble; Unilever; Church & Dwight; Edgewell; Helen of Troy; Bansk and other consumer sponsors.
What buyers underwrite	Repeat behavior; efficacy; gross margin; retailer productivity; channel mix; influencer dependence; new-product success; international potential; claims compliance.
Current market developments	Strategics continue acquiring science-backed skincare and focused personal-care brands that can scale through global distribution.
Principal risks	Trend volatility; founder dependence; concentrated retailers; high returns; unsupported claims; counterfeit risk; rapid SKU proliferation.

Selected market signal

Recent skincare and personal-care acquisitions show that buyers will pay for a strong product truth paired with credible brand heat.

SUBSECTOR 3 OF 6

Consumer health and wellness

Persistent wellness demand supports supplements and functional products, but claims, efficacy and channel quality determine durability.

7.0-10.0x EBITDA: Indicative tuck-in valuation
10.0-15.0x EBITDA: Indicative platform valuation
Repeat purchase + efficacy: Core economic model

Exhibit 12

Lens	Assessment
Buyer universe	Haleon; Kenvue; Nestle Health Science; Church & Dwight; Otsuka; Bansk; VMG; Main Post; specialist wellness platforms.
What buyers underwrite	Repeat purchase; substantiation; regulatory classification; gross margin; subscription retention; practitioner channel; customer acquisition; product quality.
Current market developments	Strategic and sponsor capital continues moving toward functional, preventive and self-care products with clear consumer utility.
Principal risks	Claims enforcement; ingredient sourcing; customer-acquisition inflation; fad risk; Amazon dependence; formulation copying; quality control.

Selected market signal

Acquisitions of functional beverages and wellness shots demonstrate continuing appetite for products that combine convenience with a credible health proposition.

SUBSECTOR 4 OF 6

Pet products

Pet humanization and recurring nutrition support attractive demand, with formulation, retention and channel economics driving value.

6.0-10.0x EBITDA: Indicative tuck-in valuation
10.0-15.0x EBITDA: Indicative platform valuation
Nutrition + recurring households: Core economic model

Exhibit 13

Lens	Assessment
Buyer universe	Mars Petcare; Nestle Purina; General Mills; Colgate / Hill's; Agrolimen; Central Garden & Pet; BrightPet; specialty pet platforms.
What buyers underwrite	Household retention; feeding frequency; subscription economics; channel mix; formulation; co-manufacturing; gross margin; veterinarian or specialty support.
Current market developments	Strategics continue acquiring premium nutrition and fresh-food models that deepen recurring household relationships.
Principal risks	Protein and commodity costs; cold-chain economics; subscription churn; retailer concentration; claims; recalls; co-manufacturer capacity.

Selected market signal

A recent acquisition of a fresh-pet-food subscription brand shows strategic interest in recurring consumer relationships and premium nutrition.

SUBSECTOR 5 OF 6

Home and household products

Category leadership, useful innovation and omnichannel distribution support value in a market exposed to housing and promotional cycles.

5.0-8.0x EBITDA: Indicative tuck-in valuation
8.0-12.0x EBITDA: Indicative platform valuation
Products + channel breadth: Core economic model

Exhibit 14

Lens	Assessment
Buyer universe	Procter & Gamble; Newell Brands; Spectrum Brands; Fortune Brands; Helen of Troy; ACCO; private household-products platforms.
What buyers underwrite	Category share; innovation; replacement cycle; gross margin; retailer concentration; inventory turns; sourcing; warranty; omnichannel contribution.
Current market developments	Strategics are simplifying portfolios while acquiring focused brands that can use existing retail and e-commerce distribution.
Principal risks	Housing slowdown; retailer destocking; tariffs; private label; warranty; inventory obsolescence; long replenishment cycles.

Selected market signal

Recent branded-accessory transactions illustrate continuing demand for focused products that fit an established category and channel platform.

SUBSECTOR 6 OF 6

Outdoor, recreation and accessories

Enthusiast communities and specialty distribution can create durable brands, while discretionary demand and inventory cycles require discipline.

5.0-8.0x EBITDA: Indicative tuck-in valuation
8.0-12.0x EBITDA: Indicative platform valuation
Community + product innovation: Core economic model

Exhibit 15

Lens	Assessment
Buyer universe	Vista Outdoor-related category groups; YETI; Johnson Outdoors; Clarus; Solo Brands; Authentic Brands; private recreation platforms.
What buyers underwrite	Core-user retention; product innovation; specialty dealers; inventory turns; direct contribution; seasonality; warranty; international expansion.
Current market developments	Buyers favor brands with authentic communities, useful innovation and multiple channels rather than short-lived trend exposure.
Principal risks	Discretionary cycles; excess inventory; retailer concentration; tariffs; warranty; seasonality; paid-media dependence; product fads.

Selected market signal

Iconic intellectual property and enthusiast-led brands continue to attract buyers that can expand licensing, channels and product categories.

CONSOLIDATOR LANDSCAPE

Relevant buyers include global strategic acquirers and focused brand platforms

Representative consolidators and ownership reflect the 2H26 market; the list is not exhaustive.

Exhibit 16

Lane	Representative sponsor-backed / private	Representative strategic / public	Typical acquisition logic
Food & beverage	Sponsor-backed food groups and consumer investors	Mars; PepsiCo; Coca-Cola; Mondelez; Ferrero; General Mills; McCormick	Category growth, distribution and procurement
Beauty / personal care	Bansk and focused beauty platforms	L'Oreal; Estee Lauder; P&G; Unilever; Church & Dwight; Edgewell	Brand relevance, efficacy and global channels
Health / wellness	VMG; Main Post; Bansk; wellness platforms	Haleon; Kenvue; Nestle Health Science; Otsuka	Claims, repeat use and category expansion
Pet	BrightPet and private specialty platforms	Mars Petcare; Nestle Purina; General Mills; Hill's; Agrolimen; Central Garden	Nutrition, households and specialty channel
Home / household	Private household-products platforms	P&G; Newell; Spectrum; Fortune Brands; Helen of Troy; ACCO	Category, innovation and channel
Outdoor / accessories	Private enthusiast-brand groups	YETI; Johnson Outdoors; Clarus; Authentic Brands	Community, products and licensing

OWNER PREPARATION AND MARKET OUTLOOK

Document brand demand and operating performance with transaction-ready evidence

Buyer diligence must establish that end-consumer demand, channel economics and supply execution will remain durable after a change in founder involvement.

Exhibit 17

	Preparation priority	Required evidence
1	Reconcile sell-in and sell-through	Bridge shipments, retailer inventory, point-of-sale velocity, returns and deductions by channel.
2	Prove repeat behavior	Use cohort, household, subscription and retailer data to separate trial from durable demand.
3	Build the gross-margin bridge	Quantify price, mix, commodities, freight, promotion, chargebacks and co-manufacturing.
4	Measure channel contribution	Show fully loaded profitability across retail, Amazon, distributors and direct-to-consumer.
5	Prepare claims and quality diligence	Organize substantiation, labeling, testing, recalls, complaints, insurance and regulatory materials.
6	Reduce founder dependence	Institutionalize brand, sales, product, supply-chain and financial leadership before the process.

Founders Group outlook

Functional food and beverage, beauty, wellness and pet should continue attracting the strongest strategic attention. Broader consumer volume may recover gradually, with continued dispersion between category leaders and undifferentiated products. Portfolio reshaping should create carve-outs and focused brand combinations. Retailer productivity, gross-margin durability and supply resilience will remain central to valuation.

ABOUT THIS REPORT

Use this report as market context, not as a valuation opinion

A 2H26 view of private deal activity, consolidators, valuation context and owner priorities across Consumer Goods & Products.

Methodology

Market observations reflect current transaction patterns, disclosed consideration and operating developments across branded consumer products. Disclosed multiples are shown only when transaction value and a matching earnings measure were public. Founders Group indicative ranges triangulate private-market behavior, disclosed precedents and subsector judgment; they should not be read as a fairness opinion or valuation conclusion.

1: Market observations Current transaction patterns and operating themes.
2: Disclosed transactions Values are shown only when transaction consideration was public.
3: Indicative ranges Founders Group judgment based on size, quality and buyer behavior.

Exhibit 18

Term	Meaning in this report
Tuck-in	A smaller acquisition integrated into an existing platform. Strategic fit, geography, capability and customer density may influence value.
Platform	A business capable of standing alone as a buyer's sector anchor, with management, systems and a repeatable growth model.
Enterprise value / EBITDA	A valuation ratio comparing enterprise value with adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization.
Indicative range	A market guidepost rather than a quoted price. Actual outcomes depend on company-specific facts, structure and process.

Disclaimer

This material is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal, tax, accounting or valuation advice, an offer to sell, or a solicitation to buy any security. Information is believed reliable but has not been independently verified and may be incomplete. Actual transaction outcomes depend on company-specific facts, market conditions, structure and process. Past transactions and market observations are not indicative of future results.

Founders Group

Ali Naseer
Co-Founder & Partner
Ali@FoundersG.com (952) 797-4679
Matt Menzi
Co-Founder & Partner
Matt@FoundersG.com (301) 767-5616

San Francisco · Denver · Minneapolis · New Yorkwww.foundersg.com

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Consumer Goods & Products